March Madness bubble watch: Could St. John's really make the NCAA men's tournament?

Remember when Rick Pitino blasted his first season coaching at St. John's as "the most unenjoyable experience of my lifetime" and called his players "unathletic" after falling to Seton Hall, its third loss in a row?

Maybe it was the wake-up call the Johnnies needed.

Since the infamous tirade, the Red Storm have rattled off four wins − including an impressive victory against Creighton − to enter the NCAA Tournament picture, a 180-degree turn from where St. John's was just less than three weeks ago.

Going into the final week of the regular season, St. John's is one of the first four out teams in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology prediction. While it's not a solidified tournament spot, it surely is a much better place than it was in a few weeks ago, and with teams ahead of them tumbling, there's a solid chance a late-season push could result in his squad getting a spot in the bracket and Pitino taking his sixth different school to the big dance.

St. John's is one of five Big East teams still vying for a postseason spot, creating what should be an enticing beginning to the conference tournament next week. But teams can't look too far ahead. Here is where teams on the bubble sit, and what could result in them making − or missing − the tournament heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

American Athletic

Florida Atlantic

Record: 23-7 (13-4). NET: 37. Quad 1 record: 1-3

With South Florida clinching the regular-season conference title, Florida Atlantic’s stock has dropped it to a double-digit seed. The Owls close the regular season against Memphis on Saturday, and they need to avenge the loss against the Tigers to avoid being in the last four in territory. 

Projection: No. 10 seed.

ACC

Virginia

Record: 21-9 (12-7). NET: 49. Quad 1 record: 2-6.

A poor showing against Duke shows the struggle Virginia has had recently with three losses in its last four games, with all of those defeats being double-digit losses. Tony Bennett’s team could be a first four selection, but it needs to at least beat Georgia Tech in the season finale to avoid the play-in game.

Projection: No. 10 seed.

Wake Forest

Record: 18-12 (10-9). NET: 41. Quad 1 record: 2-6.

Things need to change quickly in Winston-Salem if Wake Forest wants to be in the tournament. The Demon Deacons have lost three in a row, including a bad Quad 3 home loss to Georgia Tech. As a result, Wake Forest plummeted in the NET rankings from 31 to 41. Not all hope is lost with another Quad 1 opportunity against Clemson to end the regular season, but it’s a must-win if Wake Forest wants to stay alive. 

Projection: Next four out.

Pittsburgh

Record: 20-10 (11-8). NET: 44. Quad 1 record: 2-6.

Even with no impressive wins in the past week, Pittsburgh has been jumped by several teams that have boosted their tournament stock to put the Panthers in the next four out. But don’t count out the Panthers just yet; they remain alive in the hunt for a tournament spot, and if Pittsburgh is able to handle North Carolina State at home, it should keep momentum going into the ACC tournament. 

Projection: Next four out.

Big 12

TCU

Record: 20-10 (9-8). NET: 40. Quad 1 record: 2-10.

String of defeats in the loaded Big 12 and a poor Quad 1 record have resulted in TCU dropping a few sports down the tournament field. The Horned Frogs don't have any Quad 1 opportunities left to significantly move up, but a spot in the bracket will be assured as long as they take care of business against UCF on Saturday.

Projection: No. 9 seed.

Big East

Villanova

Record: 17-13 (10-9). NET: 25. Quad 1 record: 4-8.

The big Quad 1 road win at Providence last weekend has propelled Villanova back into the projected bracket. However, the Wildcats weren't able to keep the momentum with a road loss to Seton Hall. The regular-season finale Creighton is the game of the season that could be a big factor in Villanova's fate before the Big East tournament.

Projection: No. 11 seed (last four in).

Seton Hall

Record: 19-11 (12-7). NET: 67. Quad 1 record: 6-7.

It was a tall task to try and beat Creighton and Connecticut on the road in the same week, but it didn’t help getting blown out in both games. Still, Seton Hall remains a tournament team, and the win over Villanova is another Quad 1 win that should give them more space than the Wildcats. The Pirates should handle DePaul to close out the regular season.

Projection: No. 11 seed (last four in).

Providence

Record: 19-11 (10-9). NET: 62. Quad 1 record: 5-8.

Saturday's loss to Villanova is the reason why Providence went from a projected tournament team to being one of the last four teams out. Now if they want to steal a last four in spot from another team, the Friars need to close the regular season with a win over Connecticut, something easier said than done. 

Projection: First four out.

St. John’s

Record: 18-12 (10-9). NET: 34. Quad 1 record: 5-9.

The newest team to join tournament consideration, St. John’s has quickly turned its season around with a four-game winning streak that includes two Quad 1 wins in Creighton and Butler. With Georgetown to close out the regular season, don’t be surprised if the Johnnies are one of the last four teams in as the conference tournament begins.

Projection: First four out.

Butler

Record: 18-13 (9-11). NET: 66. Quad 1 record: 4-11.

Butler is hanging on for dear life in staying in consideration for a tournament spot, snapping a five-game losing streak with a win against lowly DePaul and then beating Xavier on Wednesday. However there’s still lots of work to do if the Bulldogs want a tournament spot, so they’ll need to make some noise in New York City if it wants to catapult up the bubble.

Projection: Next four out.

Big Ten

Northwestern

Record: 20-10 (11-8). NET: 52. Quad 1 record: 5-6.

A loss to Iowa over the weekend hurt Northwestern’s chance of getting a top eight seed, and losing a big Quad 1 opportunity against fellow bubble team Michigan State moves the Wildcats into double-digit seed territory. But Northwestern doesn't need to fully panic − yet. A win against Minnesota on Saturday should seal the deal.

Projection: No. 10 seed.

Michigan State

Record: 18-12 (10-9). NET: 22. Quad 1 record: 4-8.

Another season of going from national title aspirations to fighting for a tournament spot for Michigan State. The Spartans entered the week on a three-game losing streak that resulted in them being a projected double-digit seed, but Wednesday's defeat of Northwestern should give the Spartans a case to jump the Wildcats in the bubble.

Projection: No. 9 seed.

Nebraska

Record: 21-9 (11-8). NET: 43. Quad 1 record: 3-7.

The Cornhuskers went 1-1 last week but they moved up in the projected field as a solidified No. 11 seed. There isn’t much room for Nebraska to move up with the regular season ending against Big Ten-worst Michigan. Still, it remains very likely at the moment Nebraska will return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. 

Projection: No. 11 seed.

Iowa

Record: 18-12 (10-9). NET: 57. Quad 1 record: 3-8.

An impressive victory at Northwestern and three Quad 1 wins in its last five games have propelled Iowa into tournament consideration. There’s still a lot that needs to happen for the Hawkeyes, but they can make another big jump to end the regular season with another Quad 1 win against Illinois.

Projection: Next four out.

Missouri Valley

Drake

Record: 25-6 (16-4). NET: 48. Quad 1 record: 3-1.

The Missouri Valley Conference certainly has a case to send two teams to the tournament with Drake’s impressive resume. The biggest concern is the selection committee being tough on Drake’s schedule and two Quad 3 losses. The Bulldogs likely need to make the conference tournament title game this week and face Indiana State to be considered for an at-large bid should they not win it all.

Projection: Next four out.

Mountain West

Boise State

Record: 21-9 (12-5). NET: 27. Quad 1 record: 5-4.

Boise State saw its five-game winning streak end and a golden opportunity to grab first in the Mountain West go away with a loss to Nevada, which likely prevents the Broncos from moving up a seed. The chance to head into Las Vegas with the No. 1 seed is still alive with a big Quad 1 game at San Diego State on Saturday. 

Projection: No. 9 seed.

Colorado State

Record: 21-9 (9-8). NET: 36. Quad 1 record: 4-6.

Colorado State was able to halt its freefall from the top of the Mountain West with a win over Wyoming last weekend. The Rams will face Quad 4 opponent Air Force to close out the regular season, which will have to be a win to prevent Colorado State from falling into last four in territory. 

Projection: No. 10 seed. 

New Mexico

Record: 22-8 (10-7). NET: 29. Quad 1 record: 2-5.

Don’t let the high NET ranking fool you; New Mexico has the least amount of Quad 1 wins of any Mountain West contender, and it suffered a horrific loss to Air Force before losing to Boise State last week. The Lobos can get back into a solidified tournament spot by capping off the regular season with a Quad 1 win at Utah State.

Projection: No. 11 seed (last four in). 

Pac-12

Colorado

Record: 20-9 (11-7). NET: 31. Quad 1 record: 1-5.

The Buffaloes have handled their business in recent weeks with a four-game winning streak, and they’ve been rewarded with one of the last four spots in the tournament. Colorado can make a real case for securing a tournament bid by getting its second Quad 1 win of the season on Thursday against Oregon. 

Projection: No. 11 seed (last four in). 

Utah

Record: 18-11 (9-9). NET: 46. Quad 1 record: 3-7.

Sweeping the Bay Area schools last week wasn’t enough to move Utah up anywhere in the first eight teams projected to miss the tournament. In order to move up, Utah will need to beat Oregon State and end the regular season with a Quad 1 win at Oregon. 

Projection: First four out.